Fiscal Cliff, Jobs Market and Turkey

At some point, all of them can put you to sleep. So to perk up the conversation, let’s bring all three back to jobs.

Until we hit 200,000 per month in job adds monthly in the US for three months straight, I am not going to get too excited about anything. What will changing the tax rates do for job creation? Well a small cut stands to have the same impact as a small bonus – like the tax credit for hiring veterans. It wasn’t enough to have a large shift in veteran hiring, so why would an increase greatly impact employment?

Companies (mine included) will make choices on hiring because of ROI and need. For me, as a small business owner, the difference in any tax structure isn’t going to sway my decision to investment many times that tax difference in an employee, and if my business is growing, I will hire.

So watch the job creation numbers in the coming year – this year none of the monthly job growth numbers were 2xx,xxx – but they need to be there next year, otherwise is just more of the new normal.

My prediction? Regardless of tax decisions and fiscal cliff, we average less than 150,000 new jobs per month all next year.

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